Disappointments are actually a type of surprise. Unhappy anecdotes, on the other hand, have no place here. We’re concentrating on the most delightful surprises—performances by both teams and players that result in unexpected smiles, dilated pupils, and revelatory whoops.
Ahead of the season, consensus expectations will guide selections. If you saw any of this coming, congratulations. However, these performances and advancements were not typical.
Every kind of surprise you can think of is eligible for a conclusion. Each one comes with the proviso that “it’s still really early,” but the goal is to find the unanticipated adrenaline rushes that are either worth tracking in the next weeks and months or have the best possibility of becoming new normals.
Miles Bridges’ Star Turn
The discussion of Ticketing Miles Bridges for the Most Improved Player should have been met with pure, flatlining disbelief.
But what about this?
Bridges is averaging 22.7 points, 3.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game, all of which are significantly higher than his career averages. His shooting splits have reduced, but they haven’t reached their lowest point. His 54.4 effective field-goal percentage is well above the league average (51.6), but it has been dragged down by two subpar outings in the last three games.
When someone climbs the volume ladder so quickly, swings of this magnitude aren’t uncommon. Bridges’ usage is up more than seven points from last season, and it’s not because he’s taking on a more prominent play-finishing role.
This season, he’s made around 41% of his made baskets without any help. This is an increase from 24.6 percent in 2020-21. In comparison to 16.7% last year, pull-up jumpers now account for over a quarter of his shooting attempts. The Charlotte Hornets have increased his post volume.
Defenses are more aware of his willingness to rip jumpers off the bounce as a result of his drives. His progress is aided by the extra attention he receives. Even as he navigates more bodies around the basket, Bridges has flung some fairly smooth passes on the move and remains a bulldog finisher. His step-back three isn’t falling as well as it was last year, but he’s connecting on 43.6 percent of his spot-up triples.
By the end of last season, Bridges had given us a peek of what he’s up to now. But what’s going on right now is on a far greater, more remarkable scale. Also, it’s more pricey. Bridges will be a max-contract candidate when he hits restricted free agency next summer if he keeps this up.
Chicago’s Defensive Performance
Since last year’s trade deadline, almost everything the Chicago Bulls have done has sparked heated arguments about the merits of their decisions. Up and down the spectrum, every imaginable stance was represented. The only area where experts could agree heading into this season was on defensive expectations—or the lack thereof.
Because it expected to play DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic at the same time, and because it didn’t have much, if any, backup-center depth, and because, well, it just had to be, Chicago would be a horrible defensive club.
The Bulls are fifth in points allowed per possession, outperforming their offensive efficiency (eighth), and have done so despite the absence of Patrick Williams, who is projected to miss the rest of the season due to a dislocated left wrist. Eight games does not have to be representative of everything, but MY GOD.
Coach Billy Donovan has his team playing in an ultra-aggressive manner, and it’s paying off. While maintaining a top-11 foul rate, Chicago ranks third in deflections per game and seventh in opponent turnover %. Pick-and-roll ball-handlers appear visibly agitated by the Bulls’ frenzied half-court effort, and opposing offenses have been unable to capitalize on Chicago’s frantic perimeter presence by increasing their second-chance opportunities.
Skeptics will easily attribute the Bulls’ triumph to chance. Their vitals, on the other hand, don’t scream “Happy accident!” Opponents should make more than 35.2 percent of their wide-open threes, but Chicago will try to restrict those opportunities and will not benefit from a significant long-range defense increase overall.
The most pressing priority appears to be favorable scheduling. Only one top-10 offense (the Utah Jazz) has beaten the Bulls, and they’ve only faced three in total. The Detroit Pistons (twice) and New Orleans Pelicans have played nearly half of their games against bottom-four offenses.
Cleveland’s Scrappiness
What if you were informed before the season began that the Cleveland Cavaliers would be 6-4 after ten games with Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt, Darius Garland missing two games, and Collin Sexton shooting under 27% from three?
Would you have believed them if they told you? Have you ever laughed at them? When asked if that was their distress signal and if they were in any danger, they said yes. Have you completely turned them off?
It’s hardly worth raising a banner for two games over.500. The Cavs, on the other hand, have beaten the Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, Atlanta Hawks, Portland Trail Blazers, and Toronto Raptors in one of the NBA’s hardest schedules. Possibly two expected lottery teams are included on this list.
Even this early in the season, hovering above.500 is no laughing matter. It’s a separate storey if it’ll be sustainable.
Allen and Mobley have been switch-proof defensive juggernauts, and Markkanen is giving it his best despite some offensive flaws. When these three are on the floor together, Cleveland allows 99.7 points per 100 possessions. There’s some noise in that stinginess. During these periods, opponents are shooting 55 percent at the rim and 29.6 percent from three, with a 36.2 percent offensive rebounding percentage.
Nonetheless, the Cavs’ entire start cannot be dismissed as a hallucination.
Ricky Rubio has brought a sense of calm to the second unit. Garland is a better playmaker this season than he was last. Cedi Osman has hit threes in the past, but not like this. Although the defense may regress, the offense still has room to improve. Markkanen and Sexton will make more shots, and Cleveland has the personnel to convert both difficult and simple chances at the rim.
Above all, the objective is not to portray the Cavs as sleeping giants. They aren’t. They also don’t appear to be Eastern Conference stepping stones.
Desmond Bane’s Mega Jump
Anyone who read our top sleeper picks for every major NBA award knew Desmond Bane was going to win. Insofar as voters are willing to consider a sophomore, he has entered the conversation for Most Improved Player.
During the Las Vegas Summer League, Bane hinted at his ability to do a lot more on offense. That doesn’t take away from the fact that his detonation at the start of the year was a “Eureka!” moment.
Non-stars’ summer league positions seldom translate to the regular season, and exhibition victories aren’t always indicative of future success. This is a unique situation. The regular-season Memphis Grizzlies have noticed Bane’s talent. He’s averaging 16.7 points and 2.1 assists per game while hitting 56.6 percent of his twos and 40.3 percent of his threes, a mix of volume and efficiency he’s bringing to more complex usage.
Bane’s pull-up jumpers account for more over 40% of his shots this season, up from 25.5 percent in 2020-21. He’s also averaging 6.6 drives per 36 minutes this season, up from 5.5 last year. The Grizzlies have even given him more pick-and-roll opportunities, and his 1.19 points per possession as a ball-handler ranks fourth among 92 players who have tried as many shots.
It’s fairly uncommon for students to make significant leaps in their second year. Sophomores usually have a lower starting point. Bane, on the other hand, isn’t simply benefiting from a lowered threshold. He’s taken on a much bigger role, and he’s answered with co-cornerstone-like play thus far.
Orlando’s (Apparently) Killer Starting 5
With the Orlando Magic sitting at 2-8 and a net rating in the bottom four, you’d expect practically every member of their rotation to be a disappointment. That includes the first five, which don’t inspire much confidence when viewed on paper.
However!
Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., and Mo Bamba are now a bright spot for the team. They have started every game for the Magic and are the sixth-most used lineup in the league.
And they’re blasting opponents by 15.7 points per 100 possessions.
You wouldn’t expect that net rating to last. It’s also not the kind of thing you’d expect to see when Suggs hasn’t taken off yet. As he goes through the motions, this team is maintaining a league-average offense, thanks to a 39.2% shooting percentage from beyond the arc. Anthony is draining nasty jumpers, while Wagner has been an inside-out delight.
This group, in my opinion, was doomed to fail on defense. Instead, 91.3 points per 100 possessions are allowed. Wagner has performed admirably from the three-point line, while the dual-big duo of Bamba and WCJ has helped opponents shoot just 56.5 percent from the field.
Make anything you want of it. It doesn’t matter if it’s plausible, temporary, or someplace in between. To this point, the play of this lineup has been a rude awakening.
Seth Curry and Philly’s Entire Offense, but Mostly Seth Curry
The Philadelphia 76ers’ injury and health-and-safety absences continue to mount. Ben Simmons is also not with them. Did you realise that? The 76ers are not only above.500, but they also have the best record in the Eastern Conference. And the most efficient offence in the league. This includes the top half-court offence. All of this happened without Joel Embiid becoming a true scorcher.
Maybe this isn’t going to last. In fact, it’s unlikely. The 76ers rank first in rim shooting and second in three-point accuracy. Georges Niang and Andre Drummond have made significant contributions.
The Sixers, on the other hand, will become healthier. Four of their planned starters have already been ruled out due to injury. Simmons should eventually take the floor or form a group of players to fill out the rotation. The 31-year-old is averaging 17.8 points per game thanks to a level of efficiency that can only be described in bullet points.
He’s the following:
- shooting 53.0 percent from three-point range
- On drives, he turned down 66.7 percent of his looks.
- 28 out of 43 are from the mid-range (65.1 percent)
- On off-the-dribble jumpers, he has an effective field-goal percentage of 68.5, the highest in the league among 97 players who have attempted at least 25.
- On catch-and-shoot jumpers, he had an effective field-goal percentage of 81.5, which was the highest in the league among 115 players with as many attempts.
- scoring 2.00 points per possession in transition (really), again the top number in the league…by a ridiculously big margin.
Sacramento Hanging Tough Amid De’Aaron Fox’s Struggles
De’Aaron Fox has been one of the NBA’s biggest disappointments thus far, consistently ranking among the league’s least efficient offensive players. For crying out loud, he’s 1-of-23 on pull-up triples (4.3 percent).
All of this adds to the shock of the Sacramento Kings’ overall performance. With a top-six offense and top-11 point differential per 100 possessions, they are one game over.500 entering Saturday.
Sacramento has defeated could-be and should-be good teams, but two victories over the depleted and impoverished New Orleans Pelicans is nothing to gloat about.
It has victories against the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns, as well as a thrashing of the Charlotte Hornets on Friday. In their second loss to the Utah Jazz, the Kings were extremely competitive and hung tough with the Dallas Mavericks—though, to be honest, the latter isn’t saying much these days.
Anyway, don’t worry about the schedule. Sacramento’s top player has been embroiled in a significant slump for the duration of the season. It’s a major issue just treading water, let alone getting above.500.
Harrison Barnes is on fire, literally and figuratively. Buddy Hield is hitting 40 percent of his three-point attempts and has thrown a few nice passes. Richaun Holmes continues to shoot floaters at a rate of one trillion percent* and is underappreciated for his rim defense.
San Antonio’s Pace
The San Antonio Spurs needed to pick up the pace this season because they lacked experienced and good half-court creators. They were well aware of it. It was obvious to us. With some lineups over the last couple of years, they’ve hinted at it. But no one should have expected such a dramatic increase.
According to Unpredictable, San Antonio is second in average offensive possession time, trailing only the Golden State Warriors. Second. The year is 2021. With a 72-year-old Gregg Popovich on the bench, not just tolerating but applauding the speed.
Only two teams are quicker to get up the court after the opponent makes a shot. Following a defensive rebound, no one goes through their attacking motions faster. (Per Unpredictable, both stats.) That stretches the mind, if only because it contradicts the meticulous system they’ve used previously.
Take a look at how they’ve ranked in terms of average possession time over the last half-decade or so:
2020-21: 21st
2019-20: 15th
2018-19: 24th
2017-18: 30th
2016-17: 25th
2015-16: 27th
2014-15: 18th
Personnel tends to influence stylistic preferences. The Spurs are playing quickly because they aren’t designed to take their time. And the payoff isn’t fantastic. Half-court efficiency is 21st, and points per transition play is 17th. They have a 3-6 record after nine games.
Scottie Barnes’ Readiness
Scottie Barnes was taken at No. 4 by the Toronto Raptors, ahead of consensus favorite Jalen Suggs, in what was thought to be a long-term investment that would pay off in small increments. In other terms, he was a project. Immediate expectations needed to be scaled back, if not completely dismissed.
The city of Toronto as a whole is a pleasant surprise. Before Pascal Siakam’s comeback from left shoulder surgery, the team had climbed above.500, was on a five-game winning streak, and had a top-10 net rating.
Dalano Banton, the No. 46 overall pick, is a downhill power and a disruptive defender who is currently playing. The Most Improved Player conversation has been entered by OG Anunoby. I’m not sure the general public understands the load that Fred VanVleet is currently transporting. On defense, Gary Trent Jr. has stepped it up a notch. Svi Mykhailiuk is back to hitting threes.
They appeared to be horribly undervalued at the start of the season. Barnes’ performance is the biggest shock in any case, more so than Banton’s first effect because of what it means for Toronto’s present and future.
The word “feel” has become an overused buzzword in the league. That doesn’t negate the fact that Barnes has it. There’s a lot of it. He’s got a slew of hesitation manoeuvres baked into his grip. His floor awareness is incredible; he appears to mentally throw some passes even before he has the ball in his hands.
Some will point out that he doesn’t have a three-point shot, but he isn’t making the court smaller. On legitimate volume, he’s knocking down 45.2 percent of his mid-range jumpers—some of which have admittedly come as entirely obsolete catch-and-fire shots (28-of-62). Defenses have begun to overreact to the pressure he puts on the rim, where he’s shooting 69 percent (29-for-42) and creating pockets of room for the rest of the team.
The Raul Neto Experience
Raul Neto has long been known as a hounding defender who can cover a beat or two. That wasn’t enough to land him more than a one-year deal in free agency last season, and the Washington Wizards are currently benefiting from his lack of marketability.
On defense, the 29-year-old, who stands 6’1″, is as gnatty as ever. His hands are quick, and he can break through even the tightest grips and emerge in passing lanes. He’s been pitted against some wings by the Wizards, and he’s holding his own.
On the other hand, his attacking impact is astounding. Everything is falling into place for him—at least on the inside of the arc. As a pick-and-roll ball-handler, he is 14-of-18 (77.8%) at the rim and 12-of-21 (57.1%) on mid-range jumpers, and he leads the league in points scored per possession (1.47).
When charging downhill, Neto often appears to keel over face first, but he typically retains control and throws defenders off balance with his body’s quirky angles and some creative pivot-foot technique. In the midst of the unsettling, he appears at ease. In the Wizards’ Friday night triumph over the Memphis Grizzlies, he fired a ridiculous bounce pass to Kyle Kuzma while on the ground.
It will be difficult for him to expand his role beyond the 20-minute reserve. Spencer Dinwiddie and Bradley Beal have established themselves as the Wizards’ primary point guards. Neto, on the other hand, is doing well enough on both ends for Washington to consider three-guard alignments.